Transitory No More: How Pandemic-Era Supply Shocks Became Persistent Inflation Drivers

 This article analyzes the transmission of pandemic-induced supply chain disruptions into sustained consumer price inflation across advanced economies. Using a panel vector autoregression (VAR) model on monthly trade and price data from 2019 to 2023, we find that port congestion, semiconductor shortages, and energy price volatility had cumulative pass-through effects that lasted 12–18 months—far longer than initial “transitory” forecasts. Crucially, sectors with high import dependence and low inventory buffers experienced second-round effects via wage demands in tight labor markets. The results suggest that modern just-in-time supply chains, while efficient, amplify inflationary persistence when multiple shocks co-occur. Policy implications include the need for strategic reserve buffers and real-time supply chain monitoring in monetary policy frameworks.